Published Mar 16, 2025
How Beehiiv Built Trust and Transformed Its Marketing Efficiency with BlueAlpha
Discover how Beehiiv, a fast-growing newsletter platform, leveraged BlueAlpha's innovative methodology to reveal the true cost of marketing, reallocate budget intelligently, and drive more business growth with confidence.
Challenge Context
Amid aggressive growth across 5+ platforms and 30+ campaigns, Beehiiv faced significant budget cuts and growing uncertainty about whether acquisition efforts were truly incremental or merely capturing organic sign‑ups.
The Challenge
Conflicting metrics from platform reports, GA4, internal attribution, and surveys obscured which channels actually drove incremental growth. Without clear, data‑driven insight, Beehiiv risked:
Overspending on channels whose reported CPA looked artificially low.
Underspending on channels where CPA was actually favorable but looked high.
The result? Inefficient budget allocation and missed growth opportunities.
The Solution — BlueAlpha’s Two‑Pronged Approach
1. Marketing Mix Model (MMM) Analysis
What We Did
Analyzed channel performance to separate high‑ from low‑value efforts.
Identified confounding factors in traditional attribution.
Prioritized channels for immediate incrementality testing.
Why It Matters Traditional MMMs are often over‑engineered. BlueAlpha refined the model and paired it with time‑sensitive incrementality tests for faster, clearer insights.
2. Structured Incrementality Testing
Experiment Design
Channels Tested: YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, TikTok
Duration: 6‑week test + 1‑week post‑treatment window
Focus: True incremental cost per signup & cost per paid conversion; interaction between free‑tier signups and paid‑plan conversions
Execution For each channel, BlueAlpha compared the platform‑reported CPA to the incremental CPA revealed by testing (the “BlueAlpha Results”).
The BlueAlpha Results
Incremental Signups (Free-Tier Users)
Channel | Incremental vs. Platform‑Reported CPA |
|---|---|
TikTok | ~10% difference — nearly identical |
Youtube | True CPA ≈ 50% higher |
Meta | True CPA 345% higher |
Inconclusive — needs more data |
Figure 1. Before‑and‑after chart comparing signups reported by ad platforms with incremental signups identified through testing.
Paid-Plan Conversions
Channel | Incremental Insights |
|---|---|
YouTube & Meta | Despite higher signup CPAs, incremental cost per paid conversion was 80% lower than Beehiiv’s internal threshold. |
TikTok | Remained the most efficient channel, delivering conversions at a cost ≈95% lower than platform‑reported CPA. |
Inconclusive — further testing required. |
Discussion
Relying solely on platform metrics hides the real cost of acquisition:
Channels like Meta can underreport CPA, leading to overspending.
Channels like TikTok may look expensive but deliver outsized incremental value.
With BlueAlpha’s insights, Beehiiv reallocated budget toward channels that truly drive incremental growth, boosting overall efficiency.
Key Takeaways
Data‑Driven Baseline An incremental baseline is more accurate than traditional MMMs alone.
Channel Differentiation TikTok excelled; Meta’s CPA was dramatically underestimated.
Informed Budget Allocation Spend can now be optimized, avoiding misleading CPAs.
Continuous Optimization Ongoing testing is crucial—especially for channels like LinkedIn.
What’s Next for Beehiiv?
Scale Proven Channels: Double‑down on TikTok, YouTube, and Meta with refined budgets.
LinkedIn Reassessment: Run larger, longer‑term tests to unlock its potential.
Continuous Refinement: Use the incremental baseline to steer future marketing investments as market conditions evolve.